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People fleeing the military offensive in Ukraine

A scene from the Palanca-Maiaki-Udobnoe border crossing point, between the Republic of Moldova and Ukraine on 1 March 2022. People flee the military offensive in Ukraine, seeking refuge in Moldova or transiting the country on their way to Romania and other EU countries. Photo Credit: UN Women.

The Small Country Paradox: New Migration Report Exposes the Fault Lines of EU Burden Sharing

byDr. Shepherd Mutsvara - Research Fellow at the University of Münster, Germany
April 29, 2026
in Politics & Foreign Affairs, Society

The recent report by the Centre for Research and Analysis on Migration (CReAM) at RFBerlin reveals that over 64 million foreign-born residents have made the European Union (EU) their new home. While the CReAM report, co-authored by Tommaso Frattini and Camilla Piovesan, provides comprehensive statistics on who is arriving in Europe, the numbers also reflect how the politics of migration mask the gap between perception and reality on burden sharing within Europe.

The report comes at a critical time, as the EU countries (and those in proximity to the bloc) are erecting an expansive range of institutional and legal barriers designed to discourage immigration. This has made migration one of the consequential and polarizing issues across the continent, shaping public discourse, elections, and EU policy. However, the report suggests that the divisive issue of migration in the EU is not driven by influxes, but by a crisis of governance, distribution, and demographics.

The headline figure of 64 million immigrants is not a sudden spike in arrivals. It is rather a long-term transformation that cannot be viewed as a single “crisis moment.” This structural growth has steadily risen from approximately 40 million in 2010 to over 64 million in 2025. Even the recent spike of 2.1 million additional migrants between 2024 and 2025 aligns well with this broader trajectory. It must be noted that although this number is historically high, it remains within the frame of long-term expansion rather than the oft-quoted migration crisis of 2015. 

This perhaps suggests that migration to Europe is not a temporary spike associated with one geopolitical episode, but rather a sustained demographic trend tethered to labour demand, aging population, and ongoing displacement spurred by the Russian aggression against Ukraine. This is a critical note as EU policy responses often treat migration to the bloc as episodic. The CReAM data suggests that migration should be viewed as a permanent feature of Europe’s economic and social landscape.

The Numbers in Perspective

According to the report, Germany remains the main destination for migrants. The German foreign-born population rose from around 10 million in 2010 to nearly 18 million in 2025. This is a 70% inrease over fifteen years. Yet Germany is no longer the story of the moment. The report shows that between 2024 and 2025, Germany’s immigrant population grew by about 300,000 (1.7%) — half the EU average (3.4%).

Spain, on the other hand, dominates Europe’s migration statistics for 2025. The immigrant population rose from 8.8 to 9.5 million in a single year. This is an 8% increase and more than double the EU average stated above. With an increase of approximately 700,000 individuals, Spain accounts for close to one-third of the total increase in the EU’s immigrant population in 2025. While the CReAM report does not speculate on the causes driving Spain’s surge, the asylum figures provide a concrete clue. In 2025, Spain was the largest recipient of asylum applications in the EU. Most asylum applications are from Venezuelans, accounting for around 60%, with Mali contributing a further 11%.

In a previous article, I argued that Spain’s asylum figures tilt towards regularisation and integration. The move to formalise undocumented migrants in Spain brings people already living and/or working in Spain into the legal labour market. This enables them to pay taxes and contribute to social security, rather than remaining in the shadows of the informal economy. The move also reflects Spain’s demographic and labour challenges, which ironically mirror those plaguing the broader EU. An aging population and labour shortages make exclusion economically unsustainable.

The Geography of Migration: Concentration vs. Exposure

In absolute numbers, the migrants are concentrated in a handful of large countries: Germany, Spain, France, and Italy.  But absolute numbers do not reveal the full picture. If one adjusts for population size, then the EU migration profile is flipped on its head. This is because smaller countries like Luxembourg, Malta, and Cyprus shoulder a disproportionate share of migration. 

According to the report, Luxembourg’s immigrant population accounts for around 52% of its national population, followed by Malta at 32% and Cyprus with 28%. In the realm of migration governance, this translates into what may be termed the “small country problem.” The dual reality here is clear. There is a high concentration of immigrants in large economies and a high exposure in smaller countries. This foments the structural tension at the core of the EU migration politics. Large economies like Germany and France dominate the migration space due to their sheer size, but smaller states often experience acute migration pressure more on a per capita basis.

For example, while Germany and Italy host the largest number of refugees overall, countries like Cyprus stand out, with refugees accounting for 4.8% of its population, followed by Czechia at 3.5%. Put differently, Italy, whose hardline migration policy has always clashed with Brussels on migrants arriving from North Africa, hosts refugees equivalent to a country with half its population, while Cyprus, endowed with a fraction of Italy’s resources and administrative capacity, manages nearly tenfold that share.

Related Articles

Here is a list of articles selected by our Editorial Board that have gained significant interest from the public:

  • Migration Policy in Europe: Greece and Spain Take Divergent Paths
  • Europe’s Double Face on Migration
  • Europe’s Refugee Crisis Is a Crisis of Humanity, not Migration.

This asymmetry in burden sharing explains the constant disagreements with the EU bloc over responsibility-sharing mechanisms. For it is not just a matter of the number of migrants’ arrival but where they end up and how that burden is perceived locally. This is crucial for EU policy on migration. The constant debate (largely fanned by right-wing sentiments) is treating migration as a “crisis” and a unified problem requiring a single unified response. 

However, what we glean from the CReAM report is a different narrative: Europe is confronted by multiple, overlapping migration systems that are a product of geography, coloniality, economic ties, and geopolitical shocks. A solution for Germany’s asylum caseload (Syria, Turkey, Afghanistan) will probably not work for Spain (Venezuela). In the same breadth, a framework built around Greece or Italy’s Mediterranean arrivals will not patch up for France’s multi-origin asylum system. The challenge then becomes one of coordination and distribution of responsibility across different national contexts.

New Narrative for Europe?

The CReAM report is timely and significant. The reality is, Europe is now a continent of 64 million immigrants. Let that reality sink in. This is neither temporary nor reversible. 

The issue at stake is how Europe will manage the situation across different national contexts. The background to this observation is that the public discourse across Europe (wrongly) frames migration as a multi-dimensional threat. This has flared political polarization built along far-right extremism.

Yet the CReAM data challenges this assertion and complicates the narrative in the public sphere.

The truth of the matter is that migration in Europe is not spiraling out of control. It is rather on a steady rise anchored in identifiable structural forces, and characterized by demographic pressures, geopolitical shocks, and persistent socio-economic imbalances across countries. The challenge is no longer the scale of migration (as we saw in 2015) but the EU’s ability to manage it collectively. A fragmented approach risks undermining both public trust and policy effectiveness.


Editor’s Note: The opinions expressed here by the authors are their own, not those of impakter.com — In the Cover Photo: A scene from the Palanca-Maiaki-Udobnoe border crossing point, between the Republic of Moldova and Ukraine on 1 March 2022. People flee the military offensive in Ukraine, seeking refuge in Moldova or transiting the country on their way to Romania and other EU countries. Cover Photo Credit: UN Women.

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