Inside COP30

What are nationally determined contributions?

An NDC is a country’s climate action plan under the Paris Agreement, outlining how it will reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change.

What’s the story so far?

Countries first submitted NDCs in 2015 and updated them ahead of COP26 in 2021, but global emissions are still rising, and we need more ambition. The third round — due in February 2025 — meant to close that gap, yet only 62 countries have submitted theirs as of October 16, and current plans still fall far short of what’s needed to keep the 1.5°C goal within reach.

What should the new NDCs include, in addition to more ambition?

It is essential that NDCs reflect the outcomes of the global stocktake adopted at COP28, which provided a roadmap for the next phase of climate action, including the historic decisions to transition away from fossil fuels, double energy efficiency, and triple renewables.

NDCs from fossil fuel-producing countries should include details on reserves and extraction, phase-out pathways, as well as plans for a just transition.

To align with the Paris Agreement goal to hold global warming to 1.5°C, at a minimum, countries should commit to halting fossil fuel expansion. NDCs should also incorporate commitments to reform fossil fuel subsidies, including a commitment to develop national roadmaps that set clear policy-specific deadlines for phase-out or reform. The policy space of countries that take climate action should be protected so that these types of reforms can take place, including protection against investor-state dispute settlement enshrined in international investment agreements.

Above that, countries including an adaptation component in their NDCs should ensure it is informed by national adaptation plan (NAP) processes. This helps to raise the profile of adaptation and improve mitigation-adaptation synergies. Where appropriate, NDCs should also reference countries’ updated national biodiversity strategies and actions plans, for holistic and integrated action on climate and nature.

Gender Action Plan

At COP30, countries are expected to adopt a new Gender Action Plan (GAP) under the Enhanced Lima Work Programme on Gender, extending its mandate for another 10 years. The updated GAP will guide how parties integrate gender equality and women’s empowerment across all areas of climate action.

What is the Gender Action Plan?

The GAP under the UNFCCC is a framework designed to advance gender-responsive climate policy and action. It supports countries in integrating gender considerations across all areas of climate work — from mitigation and adaptation to finance, technology, and capacity building.

What’s at stake at COP30?

The new GAP will determine how gender equality is embedded across the next decade of climate action. Countries must agree on clear outcomes, stronger accountability, and a comprehensive approach, all with an inclusive framing of gender issues.

What could a successful outcome at COP30 look like?

A successful outcome at COP30 would mean an updated GAP that:

• uses inclusive language: Moves away from a binary framing of gender and integrates more intersectional approaches.
• mainstreams gender systematically: Embeds gender considerations in national climate plans such as NDCs, NAPs, long-term low-emission development strategies, and more.
• strengthens capacity for gender-responsive action: Expands training and knowledge-sharing to all actors involved in climate action, not just gender focal points.
• strengthens coordination: Establishes regular collaboration between climate and gender ministries, and with gender equality advocates.
• improves data and analysis: Promotes disaggregated data and gender analysis across all streams of climate action and at all stages of the policy cycle.
• ensures robust monitoring and reporting: Defines measurable deliverables and targets linked with broader UNFCCC frameworks to create accountability for mainstreaming gender.

Food Systems and Land Use

What’s the story so far?

At COP27, parties launched the Sharm-el-Sheikh joint work on agriculture and food security to enhance coordination and support the implementation of policies on agriculture, food systems, and food security.

At the 62nd session of the UNFCCC Subsidiary Bodies in Bonn, for the first time, negotiators and stakeholders explicitly discussed broadening the scope of negotiations to consider a whole-of-food-systems approach, recognizing that addressing climate impacts on agriculture requires looking beyond farms to the entire value chain — from production and consumption to trade and waste.

What’s at stake at COP30?

At COP30, attention is expected to turn to how the world grows food, uses land, and protects forests — with Indigenous Peoples at the heart of the discussion. Food and agriculture feature across the negotiation agenda — from adaptation indicators to finance and updated NDCs.

Beyond the formal talks, the Brazilian COP Presidency will introduce several major initiatives aligned with their Action Agenda priorities, including the Tropical Forest Forever Facility, a new global fund to protect tropical forests and support local communities; the Resilient Agriculture Investment for net Zero land degradation initiative (RAIZ), which aims to restore degraded farmland and promote sustainable agriculture; and the Belém Declaration on Hunger, Poverty and Climate Action, which highlights how climate change worsens food insecurity and poverty.

What could a successful outcome at COP30 look like?

Success will depend on whether these efforts move beyond declarations in Belém to deliver real, lasting change after the final gavel falls. The Tropical Forest Forever Facility will require solid financial backing and must ensure that Indigenous Peoples, local communities, and small farmers receive a fair share of support, with investments that uphold high environmental and ethical standards.

For RAIZ, success will mean the inclusion of rules that guarantee land restoration in ways that protect biodiversity, support sustainable farming, and respect land rights — especially where tenure is uncertain or contested.

The Belém Declaration will need to build on past commitments to fight hunger and poverty and ensure that it translates into concrete actions rather than promises. Across all these efforts, progress will be measured by inclusion, transparency, accountability, and impact: who benefits, where funds go, and how they contribute to cutting emissions, protecting nature, and improving lives.

What is the NAP process?

The NAP process is a strategic process that enables countries to identify and address their medium- and long-term priorities for adapting to climate change.

What is the NAP assessment?

The NAP assessment aims to take stock of developing countries’ progress in formulating and implementing their NAPs, identify challenges and gaps, as well as best practices and forward-looking recommendations to further enhance and scale up adaptation actions in developing countries.

What’s the story so far?

At COP29, countries were unable to reach an agreement on the NAP assessment, with discussions reflecting differing views on the state of support provided and mobilized for developing countries’ NAP processes. Many developing countries emphasized the importance of ensuring predictable and accessible public adaptation finance, while developed countries wished to highlight the role of the private sector in adaptation finance. Negotiations will continue in Belém, with the aim of reaching a consensus on a final decision.
What could a successful outcome at COP30 look like?

The NAP assessment should acknowledge the progress made by developing countries in advancing their NAP processes, while identifying remaining challenges and barriers. It should also highlight good practices, provide clear recommendations, and offer forward-looking guidance.

The final decision should retain key messages on transitioning from planning to implementation; mainstream adaptation across sectors and levels of governance; promote gender equality and social inclusion; strengthen monitoring, evaluation, and learning systems; and highlight the importance of adequate, predictable, and accessible adaptation finance from all sources to developing countries’ adaptation efforts.

What is the Just Transition Work Programme?

The JTWP was established at COP27 in Sharm el-Sheikh and operationalized at COP28 in Dubai. It provides a space for parties and observers to exchange experiences and policy approaches for achieving low-emission, climate-resilient transitions that create jobs, protect workers, and promote social inclusion.

What’s the story so far?

Since COP28, several global dialogues have been held under the JTWP to deepen shared understanding of just transition and exchange experiences among countries. These discussions have focused on how to design inclusive transition strategies, align policies across mitigation and adaptation, support workforce transitions, and engage all parts of society. They have also explored connections between just transition, adaptation, resilience, and a just shift to clean energy.

However, COP29 in Baku ended without a formal decision. Negotiations stalled over how to strengthen the Programme’s implementation — whether through new structures or by enhancing existing ones. As a result, negotiators instead continued work to define the Programme’s future structure and scope ahead of COP30.

What could a successful outcome at COP30 look like?

Negotiations in Bonn in June 2025 showed growing agreement that the JTWP needs to move from discussion to delivery. Countries recognized the importance of linking it more closely to finance, capacity building, technology transfer, adaptation, and gender equality — so that just transition principles translate into real-world action.

There was also broad support for promoting policy coherence and encouraging whole-of-society approaches that bring together governments, workers, business, and communities. However, differences remained over how the Programme should be structured. Some parties want to reinforce existing mechanisms, while others are calling for and others proposing new structures—such as a toolbox, global platform, technical assistance network, or guidance framework — to support implementation.

A successful outcome in Belém would give the Programme a clear mandate and practical direction. It would help countries develop national just transition strategies, integrate them into NDCs, NAPs, and long-term plans, and access the finance and technical support needed to put them into practice. Ultimately, it would reaffirm a broader framing of just transition — one rooted in human rights, gender equality, nature, and universal access to clean energy and clean cooking as the foundation of inclusive, people-centred climate action under the Paris Agreement.

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This article was originally published by the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) and is republished here as part of an editorial collaboration with the IISD. 

Editor’s Note: The opinions expressed here by Impakter.com columnists are their own, not those of Impakter.com — In the Cover Photo: The Amazon rainforest. Cover Photo Credit: USDA Forest Service / Diego Perez.