Geopolitical fragmentation now exceeds Cold War levels, superpower influence has plateaued since 2015, and the number of middle power nations has nearly doubled from nine in 1991 to 16 today.
Nations like the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Türkiye and Indonesia are building influence by maintaining relationships with both Washington and Beijing while creating independent capacity for action. Each are projecting influence in distinct but complementary ways, and in the process shifting from regional actors to agents of global cooperation.
This structural transformation and redistribution of influence is the basis of new report, “The Great Fragmentation: The Rise of Middle Powers in a Fractured International Order.” It describes a redistribution of influence as superpower reach plateaus and middle powers collectively widen their global impact.
At the World Economic Forum’s 56th Annual Meeting in Davos, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s defining speech reframed where the international community finds itself: as the nexus of global power disperses, countries that once saw themselves as secondary actors now find themselves at the centre of defining diplomacy, economic governance and regional stability. In other words, a warning that middle powers must unify to avoid being sidelined by the ambitions of great powers.
United Arab Emirates: Connectivity and Strategic Diversification
The UAE’s evolution from a hydrocarbon-based economy to a diversified platform of trade, finance, logistics and energy transition reflects the broader adaptation of middle powers to the pressures of fragmentation. Through forward-leaning investments in ports, transport infrastructure and renewable energy partnerships, the UAE has deepened its integration across Africa, Asia and Europe, not just as an economic hub, but as a convener. This networked influence matters deeply at a time when traditional supply chains are being rerouted and new corridors of connectivity are emerging.
At Davos, discussions captured this shift: middle powers are redefining sovereignty as “resilience, not retreat,” emphasising capacity building and diversified partnerships rather than unilateral dependency. The UAE’s geopolitical footprint is not without controversy. Recent reporting highlights concerns about its assertive foreign policy, including involvement in Yemen and Africa, raising questions about the balance between stabilisation aims and exacerbating conflict dynamics.
Indonesia: Economic Dynamism and Regional Anchoring
Indonesia’s rise reflects how middle powers can translate economic growth into diplomatic leadership. As Southeast Asia’s largest economy and the world’s fourth most populous nation, it occupies a strategic position both geographically and diplomatically. Located along some of the world’s most important maritime trade routes, Indonesia has long been central to regional stability. In a fragmenting global order, that centrality has taken on renewed significance.
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Economically, Indonesia has built a broad-based and increasingly resilient foundation. Sustained growth, a large domestic market, and expanding manufacturing and services sectors have elevated its regional influence. At the same time, Indonesia’s control over critical natural resources, particularly nickel, has positioned it as a key player in global supply chains essential to the energy transition. Nickel is a vital component in electric vehicle batteries and renewable energy storage, giving Indonesia leverage well beyond traditional trade relationships.
Türkiye: Strategic Geography and Multi-Directional Diplomacy
Türkiye’s geopolitical influence stems from its position at the crossroads of Europe, Asia and the Middle East, coupled with a multi-aligned foreign policy that engages partners across competing blocs. Rather than choosing singular alignments, Ankara has pursued autonomy in its diplomatic relationships, engaging NATO partners while maintaining ties with Russia, regional neighbours and emerging economies.
This multidirectional approach typifies the type of adaptable agency required in a system where great-power rivalries are structural realities rather than episodic events. As the global order fragments, Türkiye’s style of engagement — flexible, context-responsive, and rooted in strategic autonomy — illustrates how middle powers can shape regional and even broader outcomes without binary alignment.
India: A Distinct yet Convergent Great Power Trajectory
While the UAE, Indonesia and Türkiye exemplify rising middle powers, India represents an overlapping case: a nation whose economic, demographic and diplomatic influence continues to expand among the world’s great powers. India is unique among major states in its growth trajectory, distinguishing it from other great powers whose influence has plateaued. India is the only great power whose overall influence continues to expand, at a time when the influence of all other major powers is stagnating or declining.
IEP’s analysis shows that India’s rising share of global GDP, expanding diplomatic footprint and sustained economic growth trajectory place it in a structurally different position from other great powers — and make it the country most likely to attain full superpower status in the coming decades.
Other key findings of the report:
- Neither the US nor China has substantially increased their sphere of influence since 2015, with both facing domestic constraints and international pushback.
- Germany’s share of global GDP has nearly halved from 8.5% to 4.3% since 1995; Japan’s has collapsed from 17.9% to 4.0%. Only India among great powers shows strong projected growth.
- The UAE, Indonesia, and Türkiye have emerged as the most dynamic middle powers, with the UAE now the largest source of foreign investment in sub-Saharan Africa.
- A group of emerging powers are likely to upgrade to middle powers, including Argentina, Denmark, Australia, Nigeria, Singapore, Egypt and Thailand.
- Rising middle powers have rapidly expanded their diplomatic connectivity, narrowing the gap with great powers. As middle and emerging economies command a growing share of global GDP, superpowers are finding it increasingly difficult to shape their behaviour.
Fragmentation carries significant risks. Internationalised intrastate conflicts have nearly tripled since 2010, with middle powers increasingly involved as suppliers, mediators, or proxy supporters. This also creates opportunities, with middle powers’ ability to maintain dialogue with multiple parties making them essential for conflict resolution, as demonstrated by Türkiye’s role in brokering the Black Sea grain deal
The combined material capacity of middle powers now exceeds that of great powers. This is a structural shift, not a temporary fluctuation, and it will define global politics for the next two decades.
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This article was originally published by Vision of Humanity and is republished here as part of an editorial collaboration with the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP).
Editor’s Note: The opinions expressed here by the authors are their own, not those of Impakter.com — In the Cover Photo: View of Simpang Susun Semanggi Jakarta, Indonesia, June 18, 2024. Cover Photo Credit: Afif Ramdhasuma.
