The specter of climate change looms large over the world, posing an imminent threat to socioeconomic stability, particularly in developing countries.
A new report by the Center for Global Development (CGD), published this week, delves into the intricacies of this impending crisis, emphasizing the urgent need for proactive measures to avert potentially catastrophic consequences as extreme weather events, shifting rainfall patterns, and soaring temperatures are predicted to become more frequent.
The report, focused on the effects of climate change on socioeconomic indicators in developing countries, highlights a grim future if decisive actions are not taken.
The socioeconomic indicators that the report focuses on include GDP per capita (income), agricultural productivity (food security and farmland value), hunger and undernourishment, poverty, health, water resources, and energy security. Here’s what the report found.
Economic Losses in Developing Countries
One of the major findings of the report is the long-term economic loss anticipated in developing countries, which the CGD report says will be “significant” — with Africa facing a particularly challenging scenario.
As the report shows, studies suggest Africa’s GDP could decline by 7.12% in the long term, with vulnerable subregions and countries, especially in Western and Eastern Africa, expected to bear the brunt of global warming.
In most affected regions of Africa, projected economic losses range from 11.2% to 26.6% of GDP in the long term.
Here the CGD report concludes that the “spatial and temporal variations in the evidence indicate the need to
consider the local context when developing climate adaptation and mitigation interventions.”
Food Insecurity and Farmland Value Decline
Rising temperatures are anticipated to adversely affect crop yields and farmland value. This impact will be disproportionately higher in developing regions in the long run, the report notes.
In Africa, the potential reduction in agricultural productivity, in the long term, as a result of global warming could range from 2.9% in 2030 to 18% in 2050. The value of farmland in Africa, meanwhile, is projected to drop by 36 to 61% in the long term.
“At 2°C global warming, the risk of climate-caused food insecurity would be severe, which might increase the incidence of malnutrition, undernourishment, and micronutrient deficiencies,” the report warns.
Poverty, extreme hunger and undernourishment
The report underlines the human toll of climate change, with over 200 million people in Africa at risk of extreme hunger, malnutrition and undernourishment due to climate change-driven declining crop yields.
As crop yields decline significantly due to climate change, African households engaged in agriculture are likely to face “decreased incomes and a rise in poverty.”
Compared to a no-climate change scenario, crop revenues are expected to drop by about 30% while poverty is projected to rise between 20 and 30%,” CGD researchers write.
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Water Distress and Energy Insecurity
Climate change is projected to increase the number of water-distressed areas and push over 50 million people in Africa into water distress.
Additionally, the report points to a likely rise in areas at risk of floods, exacerbating food security concerns and displacing more individuals.
Energy security is also expected to suffer; however, as the report explains, “the impact of climate change on hydropower and bioenergy generation is not clear.”
In conclusion, the report stresses the intricate link between climate change and socioeconomic indicators, urging immediate and targeted interventions. The predictions indicate a moderate impact in the medium term, but a substantial and potentially devastating impact in the long term, particularly beyond 2°C of global warming.
The findings emphasize the critical need to limit global warming to improve outcomes related to poverty, incomes, energy security, health, and water resources, underscoring the imperative to consider local contexts in designing climate adaptation and mitigation measures, calling for urgent actions to mitigate the impact on the future development of Africa and other vulnerable regions.
Editor’s Note: The opinions expressed here by the authors are their own, not those of Impakter.com — In the Cover Photo: A woman walks with her starving donkey. Climate change wreaks havoc on the livelihoods of communities in Somali region. Three consecutive failed rainy seasons have brought severe drought – leading to depletion of livelihoods and acute food insecurity. Water shortage is chronic, forcing women and children to walk long distances from their homes. Cover Photo Credit: UNICEF Ethiopia.
