The electric vehicle (EV) market is poised for an anticipated 22% growth in 2024, according to a new BloombergNEF analysis.
At the same time, BloombergNEF expects the growth rate of global EV sales to decline by 12% in 2024 and continue to increase again in the following two years.
Here’s what else BloombergNEF analysts predict for the EV market in 2024 and how their predictions for 2023 turned out now that the year is over.
Electric vehicle market predictions for 2024
In 2024, BloombergNEF foresees a 21% increase in global passenger EV sales (comprising battery-electrics and plug-in hybrids), reaching 16.7 million. Notably, 70% of these sales are expected to be fully electric vehicles.
These projected EV sales should account for about 20% of all global vehicle sales, 17% more than in 2023. The increase could be even higher in China, with EVs expected to account for 38% of vehicle sales.
Of the 16.7 million EVs that are expected to be sold globally in 2024, 10 million are to be sold in China according to BloombergNEF. That’s practically every sixth vehicle sold globally.
However, the country is also expected to see a slower growth rate as a result of a “market saturation in the wealthier regions and tougher economic conditions overall.”
In Europe, EV sales are expected to be around 3.4 million — an 8% increase compared to last year. BloombergNEF foresees European carmakers holding back on higher volumes this year in anticipation of tightened CO2 regulations in 2025; some important European regions have also cut EV subsidies, BloombergNEF adds.
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As to the American market, “the toughest to call,” BloombergNEF anticipates the sale of almost 1.9 million electric vehicles in 2024, which would account for 13% of all new car purchases in the US and around 11% of global EV sales.
If Americans bought 1.2 million electric vehicles in 2023, as Kelley Blue Book estimates, BloombergNEF’s 2024 prediction would imply an approximately 58% increase compared to 2023.
However, BloomberNEF stresses that “there could be some surprises to the downside as the political polarization ramps up this year.”
Meanwhile, emerging economies like India, Thailand, and Indonesia “will be fascinating to watch,” BloombergNEF says, reminding us that these three countries saw EV sales skyrocket in 2023.
EV sales in the “Rest of World” category are expected to reach 840,000 in 2024. Chinese automaker BYD’s ambitious plans, including reopening a plant in Brazil, underscore the shifting dynamics in the global auto market.
BloombergNEF’s EV market predictions for 2023
As it turns out, BloombergNEF’s predictions for 2023 were largely accurate, with EV sales projected to reach around 14 million, as BloombergNEF anticipated, and BYD surpassing Tesla as the largest producer of battery-electric vehicles.
Notably, the forecast for the number of public charging points, new investment announcements in EVs and the supply chain, and bankruptcies in the EV sector were all in line with actual outcomes.
One miss, however, was the prediction of elevated battery prices in 2023. Instead, prices dropped by 14% due to factors like falling costs of raw, increased competition among manufacturers, and overcapacity.
Looking ahead, BloombergNEF analysts expect the fight for EV sales leadership to be between Tesla and BYD, with both companies maintaining a considerable lead over Volkswagen.
Editor’s Note: The opinions expressed here by the authors are their own, not those of Impakter.com — Featured Photo Credit: Pratik Gupta.
