The 2026 midterm elections in the United States have reshaped the country’s political landscape, with Democrats winning control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate. The shift presents a major challenge for Donald Trump, raising questions about what lies ahead for the remainder of his presidency.
Three possible scenarios stand out: a retreat into personal projects and a less active presidency, an aggressive campaign of political retaliation, or a negotiated exit from office in exchange for immunity.
First Scenario: Vanity projects
In the first scenario, with the changing of the Congressional guard, there is the possibility that U.S. President Donald J. Trump will lose interest in policy and politics, become more engaged and content with expending his energies on what can fairly be described as “vanity projects,” designed to ensure him a permanent presence on the national mind, physically at least.
The ballroom, the reflecting pond, the possible demolition of the Kennedy Center and an existing public golf course, plus the arch memorial are what, in his heart and psyche, he really seems to care about.
Along with these physical projects, there are his unending social media rants, his safety valve to release anger, frustration, and need for revenge. This version will bring loss of power, waning interest, and attention. Notwithstanding, without much actual personal engagement, he might try to make deals with Democrats by offering policy concessions, for example, agreeing not to veto legislation in return for limiting investigations of his corruption.
With the clock running out comes the lame-duck transition period.
This typically means the departure of key advisors and sycophants, some such as Susie Wiles perhaps for likely genuine health reasons, others like Pete Hegseth, blamed for convincing Trump into the Iran War or the subject of impeachment, while others that may have no place to jump ship because they are too deep ideologically and despised by so many, possibly including Steven Miller, Kash Patel, and/or Todd Blanche.
Second Scenario: Fighting Back
The second possible scenario is much darker. It is important to note that Trump’s persona was formed by an early mentor, Roy Cohn, whose playbook was built on never accepting defeat and always aggressively fighting back.
While Trump might initially waver as to any hitting back, his modus operandi has been to strike back and hurt those he sees as hurting him. If he does, his response will likely be directed at the political party that blamed him for their midterm defeat, resentment at not getting a Nobel Prize, and many other slights by various establishments.
But most of all, his fury will be directed at the ungrateful American people who did not show sufficient adoration and must be the object of his wrath and punishment.
In this scenario, he would not only veto any legislation put before him, but use the Justice Department, Department of Health and Human Services, and even the military for acts of vengeance.
Outside of government, either explicitly or implicitly, the President might encourage his most ardent armed white racists, such as the Proud Boys and their ilk, to undertake acts of violence that pale in comparison to those at the Capitol on January 6, doing so at multiple locations, and against individuals or religious or ethnic groups. This would get him the public attention he craves, and leave an indelible mark on American history, however despicable.
This situation could be avoided if Congress were to act decisively to prevent him from using Executive Branch Departments and Agencies for such purposes.
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And there is yet another possibility: that under Section 4 of the 25th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution, namely, the Vice President, working with either a majority of the Cabinet or an alternative body designated by Congress, declares a President unable to discharge the powers and duties of the office (The President can challenge the declaration).
At this point, despite Vice President Vance blaming the Trump war of choice for the Republican debacle, Vance wants to be the 2028 Republican presidential candidate and is unlikely to take such action; nor would current members of the Trump Cabinet join him, as each had to prove their loyalty to Trump.
Third Scenario: Playing the Immunity Card
A third scenario would be for Trump, who prides himself as the great dealmaker, to figure out a way for him to resign, but only on the condition that when Vance assumes the role of Acting President, he and his family get immunity for everything they have done, with a commitment for Secret Service protection and operational allowances, for life.
Any rational person would realistically prefer the first scenario over the second. But for it to have a chance of succeeding, both Congress and social media would need to allow his vanity projects to move forward while flattering him in the process. This would be a relatively small price to pay compared to the second horrific scenario, if there are reasonable prospects of succeeding.
As to the 25th Amendment option, it is highly improbable; as to the President resigning in exchange for parole, it runs squarely against Trump’s character. If you were betting in a prediction market on the outlook for November 2027, which scenario would you choose?
Editor’s Note: The opinions expressed here by the authors are their own, not those of impakter.com
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