Researchers Sound Alarm on Super El Niño’s Deadly Toll

Chicago researchers warn super El Niño could drive heat deaths past 450,000 

A new analysis from the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab projects that the current “super El Niño” could cause up to 451,000 excess heat deaths between September 2026 and February 2027. The figure covers heat-related deaths alone and doesn’t account for other El Niño-driven hazards like flooding, drought or wildfires.

The event has already broken records. On Monday, the temperature anomaly at the heart of the El Niño region hit 3.05°C, surpassing the previous record of 3.02°C set in November 2015, months before this year’s event is even expected to peak. The Met Office’s Adam Scaife said the agency has been signaling for months that this El Niño would be unprecedented.

East Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa are expected to be hit hardest, though the researchers estimate the U.S. alone could see around 3,500 additional deaths. The World Food Programme warned in August that the event could also push roughly 50 million people into acute hunger and drive up food prices.

“This event is a huge redistribution of energy in the climate system, and is dangerous because it is unfolding on top of a much warmer, human-influenced climate system,” said Friederike Otto, a climate scientist at Imperial College London.

Report co-author Michael Greenstone said the projections are meant to help target emergency response now, but warned today’s extreme temperatures could become routine within 20 years.

EU governments move to keep carbon prices from spiking

European Union countries agreed on Wednesday to keep more spare CO2 permits in the bloc’s emissions trading system, an effort to prevent sharp swings in carbon prices, according to EU diplomats and a document seen by Reuters. The plan, first proposed by the European Commission in April, is part of the EU’s broader response to a surge in fuel prices triggered by the Iran conflict.

EU ambassadors agreed in a closed-door meeting to stop removing excess CO2 permits from the market, as is currently done. Instead, those permits will stay in the Market Stability Reserve, the EU’s long-term buffer against oversupply, until 2030. From 2031, the threshold for cancelling permits rose to 800 million, with the reduction phased in gradually each year.

The Emissions Trading System isn’t the main driver of Europe’s rising energy costs, but the changes respond directly to requests from governments including Poland and Italy, who wanted to limit the ETS’s contribution to electricity bills. European Parliament’s lead negotiator on the file, Peter Liese, has argued that a wider overhaul of the system can ease pressure on European businesses without giving up on emissions targets.

Germany’s largest union demands 5% pay rise for 3.7 million workers

Germany’s IG Metall, the country’s biggest industrial union, is demanding a 5% pay increase for roughly 3.7 million workers in the metal and electrical sector, ahead of collective bargaining talks set to begin October 7. Union president Christiane Benner said IG Metall is entering the talks “with a combative sense of realism,” adding that “making concessions gets us nowhere.”

The demand covers a 12-month contract and goes beyond wages, including job security guarantees and a profit-sharing scheme for employees at companies in strong financial positions.

Employers, represented by industry group Gesamtmetall, have already rejected the demand as unrealistic, arguing the sector is under real strain. Volkswagen cut its profitability forecast just last week and is pushing its own restructuring plans that include job cuts and possible plant closures, prompting some VW workers to seek a matching raise. Mercedes has floated a return to a 40-hour work week with no pay increase.

Benner pushed back on that framing, noting that while carmakers face real pressure, medical technology and aerospace companies in the same bargaining group are doing well, and accused employers of overstating the industry’s troubles to avoid raising pay.

Talks begin October 7, with current agreements expiring October 31. If no deal is reached by then, strikes could follow in November.

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UK regulator wants Google to offer users more search choices, including AI tools

Britain’s competition regulator put forward new proposals on Wednesday to give Google’s Android and Chrome users more choice over the search services they use, including AI assistants like ChatGPT and Perplexity. Under the plan, Google would have to show users a menu of search providers when they first set up an Android phone or open Chrome, and prompt them once a year to pick a default. AI assistants that meet the regulator’s technical and security standards could appear on those choice screens too.

The Competition and Markets Authority also wants search providers to properly attribute publisher content, so users can trace where results come from and access the original source material.

“The way people search for information online is changing,” said CMA Chief Executive Sarah Cardell. “We’ve listened carefully to feedback and are responding quickly to the rise of AI assistants, which people are increasingly using as their search service, but aren’t included on Google’s choice screens.”

The proposals build on earlier action from the CMA, which designated Google as holding “strategic market status” in search last year and ordered greater transparency around its search rankings in June. The new plan is open for public consultation until October 9, with a final decision expected by the end of the year.

Editor’s Note: The opinions expressed here by the authors are their own, not those of impakter.com — Cover Photo Credit: Fatih Turan