Putin’s claim of victory in Mariupol was, to say the least, bizarre. Nobody contests that he may eventually win full control of this martyred port on the Azov Sea that his troops have encircled and pounded flat for over six weeks, destroying 95% of the habitat and killing at least 20,000 of its inhabitants. But to announce victory when some 10 percent of the town – the vast expanse of the Azovstal steel plant covering several square kilometers – is still in the hands of some 2000 Ukrainian soldiers and (possibly) another thousand civilians appears distinctly premature.
And the civilians, as always with Putin’s armed forces, are given a particularly hard time:
Russian invaders specifically do not release civilians who are located on the territory of the Azovstal plant in #Mariupol. In this way, the enemy creates additional pressure on the defenders of the city in order to force them to surrender. — Iryna Vereshchuk.#SaveMariupol pic.twitter.com/EYOe2GlrzN
— Ukrainian Media_Truth about war in Ukraine (@truth_about_war) April 22, 2022
So the news this morning of mass grave discoveries some 20 km away from Mariupol should come as no surprise:
Satellite imagery from near the besieged Ukrainian city of Mariupol shows a mass grave site that has expanded in recent weeks to contain more than 200 new graves, a private U.S. company said on Thursday.#UkraineRussiaWar #RussianWarCrimesInUkraine #SaveMariupol pic.twitter.com/sh9rOf6Y9E
— Ukrainian Media_Truth about war in Ukraine (@truth_about_war) April 21, 2022
The Mayor of Mariupol said that there might be up to 9,000 civilians thrown in them.
In the light of so much ongoing brutal violence that gets continually exposed by the media worldwide and growing evidence of war crimes and possibly genocide, why did Putin make a demonstrably false claim of victory and why did he do it now?
He had to do it because, after nearly two months of the war, he has little to show for what he insists on calling a “special military operation”. The initial blitzkrieg quickly petered out, Kyiv remained out of reach and he had to fall back on the Donbas and what was in all likelihood the original goal: Linking Crimea that he took over in 2014 with the eastern part of Ukraine, so as to have geographical continuity along the Azov sea.
His generals however are talking tough, with suggestions that the ultimate goal is to control southern Ukraine all the way to the Transnistrian separatist region on the left bank of the Dniester River, with the next target being Moldova to “defend” Russians there.
Meanwhile, the West is waking up to the fact that sanctions are slow, too little and too late and that to end the war as soon as possible, arming Ukraine is the better option.
“More Western military assistance, especially weapons that can shoot down Russian airplanes and rockets or destroy artillery, is immediately needed for ending the war”
Thanks, @McFaul, for this extremely important article. #ArmUkraineNow https://t.co/MDpS0rraUC
— Rustem Umerov (@rustem_umerov) April 21, 2022
Russians are also waking up to the failures of the war in Ukraine so far and Russian society is becoming more radicalized.
As the war protracts, the discourse becomes radicalized, psychologically compensating failures in all spheres. https://t.co/6BJ8NJyMdX
— Andrei Kolesnikov (@AndrKolesnikov) April 21, 2022
Russia has turned into a nation divided against itself, according to Andrei Kolesnikov who is a Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Moscow. He recalls that “to Russians, the term “fascism” has long served as a convenient label for almost anything bad” and “nazi” was just a harsher term to denote the same thing. And he points to one of the few speeches Putin has made in recent weeks that warned of hidden traitors and a “fifth column” calling on Russians to “self-clean” and denounce each other.
Results were immediate and devastating:
“…there was a wave of denunciations, with students condemning their teachers—and vice versa—and colleagues reporting on each other. The Russian president also encouraged acts of barbarity against his critics. Alexei Venediktov, the editor of Echo of Moscow, the independent radio station that was shut down by Putin’s government soon after the invasion began, had a pig’s head left outside his door, along with anti-Semitic graffiti. On a train out of Moscow, a man attacked Dmitry Muratov, the editor in chief of the newspaper Novaya Gazeta and the recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize last year, by dousing him in red paint mixed with the toxic chemical acetone.”
Moreover, a crucial date for Putin is coming up: “Victory Day” celebrations on May 9, commemorating the end of World War II. So Putin will need to point to his own victories to equal the Soviet victory in 1945. Hence the need to declare victory in Mariupol as soon as possible.
This is a striking video designed more for internal than international consumption: he discussed the fall of Mariupol with his own Defense Minister and tells him what to do, that there’s no need to give a final assault to the Azovstal plant but only “block” it so that “not even a fly comes through” – in short, the work is done, the battle is over.
Viewers were quick to comment about Putin’s grim expression and odd body posture, his grabbing the table with his right hand, holding onto it rigidly as if he were afraid to fall. And from there, social media exploded with theories about a possible illness:
Putting aside the possibility of illness, the reaction from the US did not take long and was entirely predictable: just a few hours later Biden flatly contested Putin’s claim and announced he was sending another $800 million in military aid to Ukraine – adding up to a total of $4 billion provided to Ukraine so far.
That surely is not a welcome reaction to a victory announcement. Moreover, Putin’s order not to storm the Azovstal plant does not seem to have been followed by his army:
In Mariupol, the Russian occupiers are currently bombarding and shelling the territory of Azovstal. This is despite Putin’s statement about the alleged “order not to assault” the plant. The adviser to the mayor of Mariupol Petro Andriushchenko reports about it.#SaveMariupol
— Ukrainian Media_Truth about war in Ukraine (@truth_about_war) April 21, 2022
So what is going on with Putin? Could he be coming down with some sort of illness that slows him down or is he facing low-level insubordination? Or none of the above? Who knows, only time will tell.
Editor’s Note: The opinions expressed here by Impakter.com columnists are their own, not those of Impakter.com In the cover picture: Collage from Putin pictures on Twitter (official Kremlin account)
