Why U.S Oil Giants Still Can’t Return to Venezuela Despite Trump Claims

Industry experts outline five structural conditions Venezuela would need to meet for large scale investment

U.S oil companies would need sweeping political, legal, and financial changes before returning to Venezuela at scale, despite President Donald Trump’s claims that major U.S producers will invest heavily in the country. Trump has said U.S firms will rebuild Venezuela’s energy infrastructure and benefit from its vast oil reserves. Industry analysts say the risks remain too high under current conditions. Venezuela’s oil sector has suffered from weak rule of law, military involvement in the state oil company PDVSA, theft, and deteriorating infrastructure.

Experts point to five critical requirements. Venezuela would need to guarantee the security of personnel and assets, deliver long-term political stability, and overhaul its fiscal and legal frameworks for foreign oil companies. U.S sanctions would have to be lifted, while Venezuela’s strict royalty and tax regime would need to be reformed. Caracas would also need to address billions of dollars in unpaid compensation claims from past expropriations and restore access to global capital markets. Analysts say financial guarantees or government backstops may also be necessary to unlock large-scale investment.

Until those conditions are met, analysts say any return of U.S oil companies would be gradual rather than immediate. The investment would first focus on stabilising existing fields, with larger expansion dependent on years of political and legal certainty.

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Further reading: 5 things need to happen for Big Oil to return to Venezuela

Second Venezuela linked oil tanker seized by the U.S

The U.S has seized a second oil tanker linked to Venezuelan crude, escalating enforcement of sanctions against what it calls illicit “dark fleet” shipping. U.S authorities confirmed the latest seizure early on Wednesday, saying a stateless tanker was intercepted in the Caribbean during a pre-dawn operation. The move follows the seizure of another vessel in the North Atlantic, announced separately by U.S authorities earlier on Wednesday.

The latest operation follows weeks of tracking and attempted interdictions. The North Atlantic tanker, formerly known as Bella 1 and now operating as Marinera under a Russian flag, was first targeted last month in the Caribbean before changing course, name, and registry mid-voyage. U.S authorities pursued the vessel across the Atlantic, citing alleged sanctions breaches involving Iranian and Venezuelan oil. On Wednesday, the U.S European Command confirmed the seizure in the Atlantic. At the same time, the U.S Coast Guard began escorting the Caribbean tanker to the United States for final disposition.

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Further reading: US military says it seized second Venezuela-linked oil tanker in Caribbean

Morgan Stanley survey finds corporate carbon credit demand set to rise

More than 90% of companies that already buy voluntary carbon credits plan to continue, with median purchase volumes expected to rise by over 25% by 2035, according to a new Morgan Stanley survey. The survey of 225 global firms with revenues above $1 billion finds that existing buyers increasingly view credits as a lasting, but limited, part of their decarbonisation strategies. Most expect the bulk of emissions cuts to come from their own operations and value chains, with carbon credits used mainly to address residual emissions.

Future buyers are more cautious. Pricing uncertainty is the main barrier in North America and the Asia Pacific. At the same time, regulatory clarity is a bigger concern in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. Demand is increasingly focused on higher-integrity credits, including those aligned with emerging quality standards, but supply remains constrained. Morgan Stanley notes that corporations now have clearer preferences on project types and price ranges, particularly for nature-based credits. The findings suggest steady demand growth, but only if supply, standards, and policy frameworks evolve in parallel.

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Further reading: Global Corporates Signal Steady Growth in Voluntary Carbon Credit Demand, Morgan Stanley Survey Finds

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Blackstone buys environmental compliance firm signalling growth in regulated services

Morgan Stanley Capital Partners has sold Alliance Technical Group to private equity funds affiliated with Blackstone, transferring control of a significant North American environmental testing and compliance platform. Financial terms were not disclosed. Alliance provides environmental monitoring, laboratory testing, and compliance services to industrial facilities, utilities, and infrastructure operators across the U.S and Canada. The transaction reflects sustained investor interest in businesses tied to regulatory compliance rather than discretionary spending.

Founded in 2000, Alliance has grown into a national platform with more than 2,200 employees and over 60 offices. Since Morgan Stanley Capital Partners invested in 2021, the company has expanded through acquisitions, technology investments, and the entry into adjacent service lines. Blackstone’s acquisition adds to its exposure to regulated environmental services, as governments tighten environmental standards and enforcement. The deal underscores how private equity continues to consolidate ecological testing and compliance platforms as regulatory requirements expand across North America.

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Further reading: Morgan Stanley Sells Alliance Technical Group to Blackstone in Environmental Compliance Deal

Editor’s Note: The opinions expressed here by the authors are their own, not those of impakter.com —  Cover Photo Credit: Jonathan Gong.