Tariffs and Toilet Paper: What Happens to the Bottom Line?

How Liberation tariffs may affect toilet paper supplies and costs

The media is focusing on the enormous impact of the April 2nd Liberation Day tariffs on the projected costs of cars, cell phones, construction materials, and the like. But there is one product — bathroom tissues, aka toilet paper — that is of common use by virtually everyone, from newborns to geriatrics.

Toilet paper is unique in that it is of service for every gender, ethnicity, religious, or political persuasion. There is food, of course, which is something we all consume, but varied diets mean different impacts depending on an individual’s habits and preferences — whether you eat bananas, pasta, or hamburgers, or drink coffee is a personal decision.

It will not be possible to gauge the actual impact on the cost of this necessity, given the unpredictability of what and how the Trump Administration does with the announced tariffs. Nonetheless, looking at where much of the materials come from and the process of making bathroom tissue can offer a glimpse of what to expect in the future.

Toilet paper: the raw materials

Canada and Brazil are the primary foreign sources of wood pulp for the U.S. market, benefiting from vast forest resources. With respect to toilet paper imports, in 2023, the United States imported over $415 million, with the largest suppliers being Canada ($275 million), Mexico ($43 million), and China ($38 million).

The Trump administration’s tariff increases on softwood lumber are likely to substantially affect Canada, which supplies much of the northern bleached softwood kraft pulp (NBSK), a key material used in toilet paper and paper towels, accounting for around 30% of American toilet paper and 50% of paper towels.

Annually, an estimated 27,000 trees are felled each day just to produce toilet paper, according to National Geographic. That staggering statistic translates into 9.8 million trees lost annually for our basic bathroom needs, and while not part of this discussion, the effect on the environment is no small matter.

The U.S. also utilizes recycled paper, with substantial quantities coming from households and businesses, reducing dependency on virgin wood pulp. Some agricultural byproducts (e.g., wheat straw, cotton) are incorporated for fiber content.

Producing retail products

The process starts with selecting the right type of trees based on the desired end product. Whether the trees are felled using chainsaws or other machinery, there are effects that damage the surrounding trees and ecosystem. Once harvested, the logs must be transported, usually via trucks or rail, to a sawmill or processing plant. This transport can add to the costs depending on distance and logistical complexities.

Prices vary based on the species of tree, market demand, and regional supply shortage.

Sawmilling results in debarking (removing the outer bark), sawing, and sometimes drying (kiln drying) to reduce moisture content.

Costs vary with the operational efficiency of the sawmill and energy costs.

For toilet paper, wood fibers are processed into pulp. This involves treating the wood with chemicals or mechanical processes to break down fibers, bleaching to achieve a specific whiteness, forming the pulp into sheets, drying it, and rolling it to create toilet paper.

Manufacturing costs include labor, overhead, machinery depreciation, and energy costs.

The finished product is then packaged and shipped to wholesalers, retailers, or, in some cases, directly to consumers. Distribution costs can fluctuate based on fuel prices and shipping tariffs.

Transportation costs fluctuate with fuel prices and infrastructure availability. Longer distances increase expenses.

Potential impact of Trump’s “Liberation” tariffs on toilet paper

If imposed on pulp and paper products, the announced Trump tariffs will cost U.S. companies that import raw materials and processing chemicals. The tariffs will affect the flow of raw materials from dominant suppliers like Canada and Brazil (as well as lesser European providers such as Sweden and Finland), potentially leading to shortages and production delays.

Should the new tariffs go into effect as stated, both foreign and U.S. toilet paper companies will face new logistical challenges, resulting in inefficiencies and increased operational costs.

Moreover, toilet paper manufacturers will likely want to search for alternative suppliers or find funds to invest in domestic pulp production, both of which can be costly and time-consuming. The volatile market fluctuations will affect stock prices, influencing the willingness of investors to incur risks. This will add to the further deterioration in trade relations with countries that had developed markets for their products and relied on access to the United States.

From the limitations of raw materials to processing and the cost of getting to supermarket shelves, toilet paper will be more expensive for most consumers in almost any scenario. However, there are further possible adverse consequences. One need only recall the panicked reactions at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States when people emptied the shelves of paper products and fought over scarce supplies.

Some may say it is a mistake to focus on toilet paper as unlikely to be in short supply, more whimsical than serious, not a major aspect of the broader trade and tariff debacle. However, for an individual and family, it is not insignificant — it is very personal — and the toilet paper crisis could happen again.

Editor’s Note: The opinions expressed here by Impakter.com columnists are their own, not those of Impakter.com — Cover Photo Credit: Janelle Hiroshige.