Global and European political shifts could push Italy, under Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, towards a more radical stance. Since 2022, her government has combined hardline domestic policies on immigration and justice with a pragmatic foreign approach. But rising instability in Europe and the return of Donald Trump may reshape its strategy.
With France and Germany facing EU leadership challenges, Italy’s importance to Washington is growing, driving a more assertive role. External players, including Elon Musk, add to signs of a shift towards full-fledged radicalism at home and in Europe.
Meloni’s government must navigate a shifting global order, where NATO and EU constraints are weakening as new political alignments emerge, increasingly reflecting the radical right.
The triumph of pragmatism (2022-2024)
Italy’s right-wing coalition, which won the 2022 election, offers a case study on how radical right-wing parties and their leaders adapt to a rapidly evolving international landscape. Since taking office, Meloni’s government and her party, Fratelli d’Italia (FdI), have followed a “dual track” approach.
While domestically, the administration has pursued symbolic “culture war policies” — emphasizing border security, fighting illegal immigration, and promoting traditional values — it has remained largely pragmatic in foreign affairs. Meloni has aligned with previous Italian governments, by maintaining a strong transatlantic stance and backing Ukraine against Russian aggression. Her government has prioritised continuity, following the course set by former Prime Minister Mario Draghi.
However, a shifting international landscape, marked by Trump’s victory in the United States and political turbulence in France and Germany, is positioning Meloni as a potential model for the EU. This may prompt a strategic shift away from the “dual track” approach, where moderation in foreign policy balances radicalism at home.
In this sense, French President Emmanuel Macron’s recent decision to convene an emergency summit on Ukraine for February 17 appears to be a last-ditch effort. It reflects concerns that the EU could be largely sidelined from upcoming peace talks led by the US and Russia.
This urgency stems not only from the likelihood that EU member states will have little influence in negotiations, despite bearing a significant burden in supporting Ukraine, but also from Macron’s apparent attempt to reclaim his waning political influence both in France and within the EU.
Goodbye to the “dual track”
At the international level, the triumphant return of Donald Trump in the United States will certainly have a significant impact on liberal democracies and old allies. Trump’s previous term (2017-2021) showed a preference for bilateral relations over multilateral institutions, a stance that would redefine transatlantic dynamics.
In this scenario, Italy is emerging as a key US partner, given the political alignment between the two leaders. At the EU level, the absence of strong leadership in France and Germany is creating a power vacuum. Both countries are grappling with economic difficulties and political fragmentation, weakening their ability to steer the bloc. Despite Emmanuel Macron’s presidency since 2017, France remains politically unstable. Initially seen as a pro-European figure following Brexit and Trump’s 2016 victory, Macron has struggled to sustain his leadership.
Social unrest, mounting public debt, and political fragmentation have weakened his position. While the radical right, led by Rassemblement National, has not yet secured decisive electoral victories, its growing support poses a challenge.
Germany is also struggling to provide EU leadership, awaiting the outcome of federal elections on February 23. Since Angela Merkel’s departure in 2021, the country has faced economic and political uncertainty. Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s SPD has failed to establish itself as a dominant force. Meanwhile, the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) is on the rise, polling at 22%, ahead of the SPD’s 17%. The AfD’s growing support adds to the European landscape’s shift towards radical right-wing politics.
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Make Europe Great Again
Beyond the changing geopolitical landscape, another factor could accelerate Italy’s radical shift: Elon Musk’s political ambitions in Europe.
Recently, Musk endorsed a “Make Europe Great Again” (MEGA) movement, echoing Trump’s slogan. A similar initiative was attempted by Steve Bannon, who sought to unite Europe’s far-right parties under a single platform but failed due to ideological divisions and lack of support. Musk appears to be taking up this cause, with the Meloni government emerging as a potential model for his vision. The AfD, which Musk has publicly supported, has often cited Meloni’s immigration policies as an inspiration.
His involvement could amplify Italy’s influence in shaping a more radical European right. However, this strategy carries risks, particularly given Musk’s volatile relationship with Trump. If their alliance were to fracture, the MEGA project could falter, much like Bannon’s initiative.
Italy at a crossroads
Despite growing external support, Meloni’s government faces risks if it shifts too radically. A hard-right stance, both in rhetoric and policy, could trigger a political and legal backlash.
The case of Libyan general Njeem Osama Almasri highlights these dangers. Accused of war crimes and crimes against humanity, Almasri was arrested in Turin on January 19, 2025, but released days later due to a procedural error before being deported to Libya.
The episode led to investigations by the Rome Public Prosecutor’s Office into Meloni and other government officials for aiding and abetting and embezzlement. Such legal scrutiny could undermine her administration’s credibility, both in Italy and abroad.
Critics suggest Italy’s decision to free Almasri may have been influenced by its political and business ties with Libya. In 2017, the centre-left government of Paolo Gentiloni struck a deal with Tripoli, under which Italy funded the Libyan coastguard to intercept migrant boats before they reached Italian waters. NGOs have repeatedly condemned the policy, arguing it exposes migrants to dire conditions in Libyan detention centres. The same applies to opposition parties today, including the centre-left, which now criticises the agreement.
Meloni, however, dismissed the investigation as a politically motivated attack from the left and vowed she would not be “blackmailed or intimidated.” But some analysts argue that Libya’s ability to leverage its relationship with Rome highlights Italy’s vulnerability on mmigration — one of Meloni’s flagship issues.
Meloni’s government stands at a pivotal moment. While it has the potential to become a political blueprint for Europe, the road ahead is fraught with challenges.
Figures like Musk could polarise the political landscape, but overreach — whether through radical policies or legal entanglements — could provoke a backlash. The government’s next steps, particularly on domestic issues, will determine whether it sticks to its “dual track” approach or embraces full-fledged radicalism, despite the potential for increased opposition at home and within the EU.
Regardless of its trajectory, Italy’s role in shaping Europe’s political future will remain critical in the years ahead.
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This article was originally published by 360info™.
Editor’s Note: The opinions expressed here by the authors are their own, not those of Impakter.com — In the Cover Photo: Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, March 23, 2023. Cover Photo Credit: European Commission/Christophe Licoppe.
