According to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) 2023 update of the Net Zero Roadmap, limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels is still possible thanks to the record growth in clean energy.
In the past two years, markets for solar PV installations and electric car sales have been growing — in line with the goal set in the IEA’s Net Zero Roadmap, published in 2021.
Compared to 2021, heat pump sales, fundamental to reaching the EU’s carbon neutrality goal by 2050, also increased by 11% in 2022.
The Net Zero Roadmap was first published in May 2021 by the IEA. It provides a pathway to Net Zero by 2050, “but not the only one,” for the energy sector, the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions.
So what, according to the IEA, must be done to achieve Net Zero emissions in energy by mid-century?
The 2023 update highlights that the focus must be on expanding clean, renewable energy. In fact, over 80% of the reductions needed by 2030 can be achieved by “[r]amping up renewables, improving energy efficiency, cutting methane emissions and increasing electrification with technologies available today.”
We have the tools we need to shift to a net zero pathway
Expanding renewable power, accelerating energy efficiency progress, electrification of transport & tackling methane together deliver more than 80% of the emissions reductions required by 2030
More: https://t.co/7Exw3d73V5 pic.twitter.com/wgtaTRcYcg
— Fatih Birol (@fbirol) September 26, 2023
“[W]ell-designed policies, such as the early retirement or repurposing of coal-fired power plants, are key to facilitate declines in fossil fuel demand and create additional room for clean energy to expand,” the IEA report states.
Supplementing “strong” clean energy growth with policy measures could lead to a 35% drop in CO2 emissions by 2030 compared to 2022 levels, the report finds — a necessary step to realize the Net Zero scenario.
The largest emissions reductions by 2030, according to the report update, should come from tripling global installed renewables capacity by 2030.
This would be one of the two key actions to reduce fossil fuel demand, and would require “speeding up permitting, extending and modernising electricity grids, addressing supply chain bottlenecks, and securely integrating variable renewables,” the report notes.
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The other action to drive down fossil fuel demand would be to double the annual rate of energy intensity improvement by 2030, which would “save the energy equivalent of all oil consumption in road transport today, reduce emissions, boost energy security and improve affordability.”
This should step from these “three equally important actions”:
- improving the technical efficiency of equipment such as electric motors and air conditioners;
- switching to more efficient fuels — electricity in particular — and clean cooking solutions in low-income countries;
- and using energy and materials more efficiently.
At the same time, accelerating electrification and cutting methane are also essential to stay within the 1.5°C increase. New technologies — such as electric vehicles and heat pumps — would be responsible for one-fifth of the emissions reduction needed by 2030 in IEA’s new Net Zero scenario.
Moreover, because the transition to zero emissions must also consider economic factors, focusing on methane is smart. Cutting methane emissions for the energy sector by 75% by 2030 would be “one of the least cost opportunities to limit global warming in the near term.”
The key goals for 2030, based on proven & often cost-effective technologies:
➡️Tripling renewable capacity
➡️Doubling energy efficiency
➡️Cutting methane by 75%These actions drive down fossil fuel demand by over 25% by 2030; solar & EVs are already growing in line with them. pic.twitter.com/ea3bKhUPTA
— Fatih Birol (@fbirol) September 26, 2023
The Importance of Cooperation and Investments for Net Zero
To stay within the 1.5°C, we need to do more — and we need to do it quickly. The effects of climate change are visible to all: From droughts to storms, people worldwide are suffering. Average global temperatures are also increasing: July 2023 was the hottest month ever recorded, with August 2023 falling right behind it.
Worryingly, global carbon dioxide emissions from the energy sector are also increasing. In 2022, they reached record-high levels and are set to peak in the next decade.
Although the projected demand for fossil fuels will most likely peak in the next decade and then decrease, it is not nearly enough to stay within the 1.5°C limit. Today’s improvements are on small, modular, clean energy technologies, such as solar PV and batteries.
🚨 The @IEA's new #NetZeroRoadmap is out! 🚨
The path to limiting global warming to 1.5C has narrowed since 2021, but despite stubbornly high emissions, the staggering growth of clean energy technologies like solar & EVs is keeping it open
Take a look ➡️ https://t.co/fedMY6NCdW pic.twitter.com/ocBoBe1RWS
— Fatih Birol (@fbirol) September 26, 2023
However, as the report highlights, to reach the goal, we need “large new, smarter and repurposed infrastructure networks; large quantities of low-emissions fuels; technologies to capture CO2 from smokestacks and the atmosphere; more nuclear power; and large land areas for renewables.”
Distribution grids and electricity transmission will also need to expand. According to the report, 2 million kilometres will need to be built each year by 2030.
All these improvements will require large investments. In 2023, the world is investing USD 1.8 trillion in clean energy. To stay within the limit of a 1.5°C increase, this number needs to reach USD 4.5 trillion a year by 2030.
These investments will be repaid in the long run by lower fuel bills. However, developing countries will face difficulties investing such large amounts; therefore, more effective international support and stronger domestic policies are needed.
Good news! 🚨@IEA’s new #NetZeroRoadmap shows limiting global warming to 1.5 °C is still possible, thanks to record clean energy growth.
But greater ambition & implementation and stronger international cooperation will be crucial to achieve this goal 👉 https://t.co/2HB9OS3fir pic.twitter.com/9yTliNfoDt
— UN Climate Change (@UNFCCC) September 26, 2023
Overall, the report highlights how, by 2035, “emissions need to decline by 80% in advanced economies and 60% in emerging market and developing economies compared to the 2022 level.”
Since each country’s initial condition is different, net zero emissions will be achieved at different times — from 2045 for advanced economies to well over 2050 for developing ones.
Climate change leaves no room for political manoeuvres: A unified effort is needed by every government to “work together on what is the defining challenge of our time.”
As IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said, “Governments need to separate climate from geopolitics, given the scale of the challenge at hand.”
Editor’s Note: The opinions expressed here by the authors are their own, not those of Impakter.com — In the Featured Photo: Solar Panels. Featured Photo Credit: Raw Pixel.
