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Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan Slash US Recession Odds Amid Tariff Truce

Brokerage Giants Boost Economic Outlook, Predict Fed Rate Cuts as U.S.-China Trade Tensions Ease

bySejal Jain
May 16, 2025
in Business, ESG FINANCE, ESG News, Sustainable Finance
Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan Drop Recession Forecasts

Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan Drop Recession Forecasts

Today’s ESG Updates

  • Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan Drop Recession Forecasts: Tariff truce with China prompts both banks to revise U.S. recession risks downward.
  • Microsoft Strikes 18M Tonne Carbon Deal: Landmark agreement with Rubicon Carbon sets a global benchmark for long-term carbon removal.
  • Valeo Raises €650M via Green Bonds: Proceeds to fund vehicle electrification and support its Net Zero 2050 target.
  • Valentino Unit Under Court Oversight: Labor abuses in Italian supply chain lead to judicial administration of handbag manufacturer.
Featured ESG Tool of the Week:
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Brokerages slash US recession risks as US-China tariff pause boosts economic outlook

Major brokerages have significantly revised their U.S. recession outlook following a 90-day tariff pause between the U.S. and China. Goldman Sachs sharply reduced its recession probability from 45% to 35%, elevating its 2025 GDP forecast to 1% and adjusting anticipated Fed rate cuts into mid-2026. Barclays has completely ruled out a recession, while J.P. Morgan now assigns less than a 50% likelihood. Analysts underline sustained trade agreements as essential for reinforcing market stability and investor confidence. Companies can stay ahead of the latest legislation and regulations by leveraging ESG solutions.

***

Further reading: JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs cut back US recession forecasts after US-China announce tariff truce 


Microsoft strikes $18M tonne carbon removal deal, sets new global benchmark

Microsoft Commits to 18M Tonne Carbon Removal. Photo Credits: Wikimedia Commons

Microsoft has signed a landmark deal with Rubicon Carbon to purchase 18 million tonnes of high-quality carbon removal credits over 15–20 years, the largest single-buyer offtake of its kind. The agreement supports global ARR projects and aims to mobilize private capital for scalable climate solutions. A new evaluation framework blends Microsoft’s science-based standards with Rubicon’s due diligence. This move positions carbon removal as a credible financial asset class and sets a global benchmark for long-term climate investing.

***
Further reading: Microsoft Signs Deal with Rubicon Carbon for 18 Million Tonnes of Nature-Based Carbon Removal Credits


Valeo raises €650M via green bonds to drive electrification and net zero goals

Valeo Secures €650M Through Green Bonds. Photo Credits: Wikimedia Commons

Valeo has raised €650 million through green bonds maturing in May 2031, carrying a 5.125% fixed annual coupon. The funds will support low-carbon mobility and electrification projects under Valeo’s Green and Sustainability-Linked Financing Framework. The issuance aligns with Valeo’s CAP 50 goal of achieving Net Zero emissions by 2050 across global operations and the European value chain. Led by major banks, the bond strengthens Valeo’s climate strategy while offering investors a sustainable fixed-income opportunity.

***

Further Reading: Valeo Raises €650 Million with New Green Bond to Fund Low-Carbon Mobility Projects


Valentino unit placed under judicial watch over worker abuse in supply chain

Valentino Faces Judicial Oversight. Photo Credits: Wikimedia Commons

An Italian court has placed Valentino Bags Lab Srl under judicial administration for a year after uncovering labor exploitation within its supply chain. The unit, which produces Valentino-branded handbags, subcontracted to Chinese-owned firms in Italy that abused workers, according to the court. It’s the fourth fashion brand penalized since 2023, following Dior, Armani, and Alviero Martini. Valentino stated it will cooperate with authorities and noted it has recently intensified supplier audits and cut ties with non-compliant producers. Investors can use ESG tools to identify high-impact opportunities in all markets.

***

Further reading: Valentino unit put under court administration over labour exploitation


Editor’s Note: The opinions expressed here by the authors are their own, not those of impakter.com — Cover Photo Credit: Wikimedia Commons

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