Climate-induced Mass Migration: A Solution from Africa?

Although climate-induced mass migrations are difficult to address, and with the acceleration of climate change, they are likely to become an even larger challenge soon, some countries are showing the way out. Ethiopia provides a good model for countries suffering from this new and fast-increasing type of migrants, or climate refugees.

Ethiopia, possessing the Danakil Desert — one of the hottest, driest, and most inhospitable places on Earth and despite its challenging geographical location bordering the Sahara and the Great Arabian Deserts — has achieved remarkable environmental and social transformations.

In the 1980s, unsustainable land management practices, exacerbated by factors like drought and desertification, led to an ecological crisis. This resulted in widespread famine, forcing the population to rely heavily on food aid. The landscape suffered severe degradation, with erosion, landslides, and prolonged droughts becoming increasingly prevalent.

However, over the past decade, through a collaborative effort with individuals like Tony Rinaudo and organizations like World Vision, and plans like the Drylands Development Programme, the country has embarked on a remarkable journey of environmental restoration. Hundreds of thousands of hectares of land have been reclaimed, revitalizing degraded ecosystems. This restoration effort has significantly improved water retention, allowing water to replenish aquifers during the rainy season and ensuring water availability even during dry periods.

As a result of these efforts, the community has transitioned from food aid dependency to food self-sufficiency. Farmers are now not only producing enough food to sustain themselves but also generating surplus crops for sale, contributing to the local economy.

Now Ethiopians have more agency and opportunity to contribute to their quality of life without the seasonal threats of mass starvation. Evidently, when care is poured into a wounded land, it can always be restored to abundance.

The other side of the coin: more than change

Bangladesh, on the other hand, being on a massive river delta, expects, on average, roughly 20 million climate refugees fleeing floods that are projected to submerge 17% of the nation’s land.

Since Bangladesh is a developing country, it doesn’t have the means to deal with a threat multiplier that will result in a socio-economic whirlpool, putting the country in a loop of turmoil.

This highlights the urgency of fast action for first-world countries and governments as well as for countries and institutions placed near the areas in crisis and forced to address them.

Improving the application of multinational asylum systems aligns with procedures for enforcing laws and collecting data on individual mass migrants. These are most certainly two of many factors that would ensure fair and efficient asylum procedures, but they raise complexities and challenges of their own, not least the desire of local residents to throw up walls against the incoming climate refugees.

Climate Change: Turning Up the Heat on Migration

Some estimates suggest that by 2050, over a billion people could be displaced from their homes due to climate change impacts, like rising sea levels, extreme weather events, and resource scarcity.

Although “climate refugee” is not an officially recognized term under international law, it is used here in reference to displaced persons as victims of climate change. When dealing with refugees, enforcing rules must be interpreted within the framework of international human rights law and the principle of “non-refoulement”, meaning the prohibition of returning individuals to a country where they face persecution or serious harm.

The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHR) acknowledges the growing impact of climate change on mass displacement, working to ensure that the people displaced by climate-related events receive protection and assistance.

This includes people displaced by climate change who remain within their own countries, thus becoming internally displaced persons. The actual number of people displaced by climate change is likely significantly higher than current estimates.

According to the International Displacement Monitoring Centre, an annual average of 21.5 million people were forcibly displaced each year by weather-related events — such as floods, storms, wildfires and droughts — between 2008 and 2016. This figure reached a record 32.6 million in 2022. The Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP), an international think tank, expects this number to surge. It predicts that 1.2 billion people could be displaced globally by 2050 due to climate change and natural disasters.

As such, supporting multinational asylum systems’ core principles is a challenge, given the complex and multifaceted nature of mass migration as presented by these climate refugees. Just as unpredictable as the weather is, it is impossible to predict the volume of climate refugees that will be displaced and might need asylum — we can only, at best, make an approximate risk assessment and therefore, account for the worse. This underscores the need for an established comprehensive approach that takes into consideration the diverse needs and vulnerabilities of displaced populations.

Beyond Borders: Climate Change Fuels Mass Displacement

National and international asylum systems play a crucial role in ensuring that asylum seekers receive fair and equitable treatment. This practice aligns with the core principle of upholding fundamental human rights. By providing support and guidance to Member States, governments can help ensure that asylum procedures are conducted in a manner that respects the dignity and human rights of all individuals seeking protection while preserving the culture and demographics.

Governments can play a vital role in addressing the challenges posed by climate-induced migration by:

Supporting the development of comprehensive and inclusive asylum policies that consider the specific needs and vulnerabilities of individuals displaced by climate change.
Providing training and capacity building for asylum officials to enhance their understanding of the complex factors driving climate-induced migration and to ensure that their assessments are informed by this understanding.
Facilitating information sharing and best practices among states regarding the assessment and protection of individuals displaced by climate change.

By effectively addressing the challenges posed by climate-induced migration, governments attempt to contribute to a more humane and effective asylum system that upholds the fundamental rights and dignity of all individuals seeking protection while preserving national sovereignty.

A Silent Displacement Crisis Within Nations

Governments’ role in collecting data on individual mass migrants is crucial for informed policymaking and effective asylum procedures. Handled within the parameters of protecting human rights, this data collection should prioritize the protection of personal data and ensure that it is used ethically and responsibly to inform asylum decisions and improve the asylum system.

Respecting the golden mean is key. In addition to enforcing rules and collecting data on migrants, governments need to uphold the fundamental human rights principles that guide asylum-related activities. Creating a just and humane asylum system means protecting the rights and dignity of all asylum seekers as well.

This nuanced perspective emphasizes the importance of balancing the need for effective border management with the fundamental right to seek asylum. Governments play a vital role in navigating this complex challenge by ensuring that asylum procedures are conducted fairly, efficiently, and in accordance with international human rights standards.

Editor’s Note: The opinions expressed here by the authors are their own, not those of Impakter.com — In the Cover Photo: A girl, Fatima, walks with a water container. In eastern Afar, the community on the outskirts of the town of Eli Dar have been experiencing the impact of drought. July 18, 2022. Cover Photo Credit: Liz-Loh-Taylor / OCHA Ethiopia.