A recent analysis has revealed that China’s carbon emissions have declined or remained flat since March 2024. Given that China is the world’s largest emitter, accounting for over 32% of global emissions (as of 2023), this development could signal a turning point in the world’s climate trajectory.
The analysis, conducted by Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), and published by Carbon Brief, suggests that this is the result of a surge in renewable energy and a slowdown in industrial activity.
Rising Energy Demand Meets Renewable Growth
Despite China’s electricity demand growth rising significantly — from 3.7% in the first half of 2025 to 6.1% in the third quarter — carbon emissions from the country’s power sector remained flat over the previous year.
This progress, which is particularly impressive as the power sector is China’s dominant source of carbon emissions, is thanks to the major expansion of renewable energy. Since the third quarter of 2024, China’s electricity generation from solar and wind energy increased by 46% and 11%, respectively.
Having completed 240 GW of solar and 61 GW of wind capacity in the first nine months of 2025, China is now poised to set a new record in renewable energy in 2025 according to the analysis.
Declines in carbon emissions were also observed in the cement and steel production sectors, as well as in the transport industry — by as much as 5% compared to the same period last year — due to the adoption of electric vehicles.
The researchers also observed a seasonal pattern, with more rapid increases in electricity demand growth during the summer months, from June to August. This is most likely due to the increased prevalence of air conditioning combined with hotter summers, as a sign of worsening climate conditions over the years.
Industrial Emissions Offset Power-Sector Progress
While renewable energy expansion has stabilized emissions in the power sector, other industries are moving in the opposite direction and offsetting the reductions. According to the analysis, there has been a surge in the chemical industry’s carbon emissions due to the increase in plastic and other chemical production.
Import substitution, growing exports, and growing domestic demand are strong driving factors. Additionally, the booming online retail and food delivery industries further contribute to the rapid growth, as packaging makes up the largest use of plastics in China. The demand for high-performance materials in new manufacturing industries is another substantial contributor.
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Uncertain Outlook for 2025 Emissions
Depending on what happens in the last quarter of 2025, China’s annual emissions may face either a small increase or a decrease. A drop in full-year emissions is likely after an approximately 3% decline in year-on-year emissions was recorded; however, several variables still make it challenging to predict whether the country’s emissions will continue to follow their gradual decline.
Editor’s Note: The opinions expressed here by the authors are their own, not those of Impakter.com — In the Cover Photo: Solar panels at the factory of China Steel in Kaohsiung, Feb. 13, 2023. Cover Photo Credit: Wikimedia Commons.
