Water availability and its scarcity affect our lives and livelihoods. This is a case of applying the experience acquired in one area of human activities to another despite the great differences between the two areas. As improbably as it may appear, it may make sense to apply the lessons learned in controlling Avian flu to solve California’s almond production issue. But first, the facts about almonds and water.
About 80% of the world’s supply of almonds is produced in California. Essential nutrients are those that the body cannot produce on its own or in sufficient quantities to meet its needs. Almonds, while nutritious, do not contain any nutrients that exclusively fulfil a common definition of “essential nutrients,” i.e., those the body cannot produce on its own or in sufficient quantities to meet its needs.
The state’s almond orchard acreage rose from 760,000 acres in 2011 to more than 1.3 million acres in 2022. Importantly, growing a pound of almonds takes 1.900 gallons of water. While it is not the only crop that requires large quantities of water, almonds use up nearly as much water annually as Los Angeles homes and businesses use in three years. Note that this latter statistic is nearly a decade old, and the situation hasn’t improved that much.
In fact, the situation regarding water scarcity in Los Angeles, San Francisco, and California as a whole is complex and has evolved since then. Episodes of drought generated water conservation efforts, and as a result, current water usage is considerably lower than it was a decade ago. However, the underlying issue of water scarcity in California remains a serious matter of concern. The state’s water supply continues to be vulnerable to droughts, and climate change is expected to worsen the situation in the long term.
California’s Tough Choice: Almonds or Water?
The almond industry has also evolved. To its credit, like many industries, mechanization of almond production is increasingly occurring from growing and harvesting to processing. The industry’s structure is worth noting: Reportedly, “[n]early 70% of California almond farms are 100 acres or less” and “[o]f the roughly 7,600 almond farms in California, 91% are family farms…”
While these are positive aspects, they beg the question of whether this non-essential food (for most of us) is worth producing so extensively in such quantities and at what cost in water.
As we know, California experienced severe drought for years, albeit unusually wet weather this winter had a seemingly positive effect. That said, even this year, as the temperature has risen, wildfires have become rampant and are likely to worsen.
Water is “a” if not “the” critical commodity, and usage decisions affect both domestic decisions and international relations. As to the latter, there are regular disputes between Mexico and the United States over river water that originates in the United States, in light of commitments by both with respect to access and quality from the Colorado and Rio Grande — a continuing issue amply documented in Marc Reisner’s Cadillac Desert: The American West and its Disappearing Water (it is worth noting this book was published some 30 years ago, in 1993).
The nonprofit Food and Water Watch, an environmental advocacy group, recently urged California to limit the growing of almonds and alfalfa. As drought and climate change continue to “wreak havoc on California’s water supply,” the group said, “the agricultural industry is guzzling most of the state’s supplies at the expense of residents.” And they argued that the state should develop new water policies that stop the expansion of agriculture and make good on its promises to provide clean, safe, and affordable water to all residents.
California’s water availability and use are increasingly central problems. There is little doubt that the state faces very difficult choices and it remains to be seen whether it can muster the capability to limit heavily water-demanding crops.
Further, it is worth noting that there are other disproportional practices elsewhere in the developed countries: Over 80% of the European Union’s agricultural subsidies support meat and dairy farming rather than sustainable plant alternatives. This, of course, undermines the bloc’s climate targets.
The Avian Flu Response
Daily media alert us that Avian Flu is spreading globally and beyond birds to humans, cows, and other species. As reported in the New York Times on July 24, in the United States, for example, “[t]he bird flu outbreak has affected more than 99 million poultry and 151 dairy herds in the United States. The virus has also been detected in more than 9,500 wild birds, according to the CDC’s latest count.”
Past Avian Flu outbreaks have happened in many places; for example, in 2004, several Asian countries engaged in extensive culling efforts of infected flocks, providing subsidies to small poultry producers. Their efforts were supported by international financial institutions such as the World Bank, described in the “Global Program for Avian Influenza and Human Pandemic Preparedness and Response: GPAI Program Framework” (GPAI), and other international institutions such as the FAO.
This basic culling, containment, and surveillance approach was significant in limiting a major threat to an important food source and the affected economies.
Connecting the Avian Flu Model to Reducing Almond Acreages
It is always a challenge to design, legislate, and implement “public good” policies that affect powerful economic and political forces. There are those economists who consider the solution to raise taxes as an effective means to garner the desired response and formulate it so that it has less impact on the small to medium-sized producers.
But could another approach, one drawn from the avian flu playbook, be used to achieve the desired objectives?
After all, both concern agricultural challenges with wider implications and potentially devastating effects on society as a whole. It is fair to say that poultry is a much more common part of the diet, or at the very least, present on the table in many homes.
Probably the best example of addressing Asian Flu is found in Southeast Asia, the global region that has had the most extensive experience with addressing it. Their 2010 report has now been expanded in 2023 with its Post-2020 Avian Influenza Control Framework in ASEAN, noting that
“ASEAN Member States have…developed and implemented an array of mechanisms, strategies, and approaches to addressing HPAI (Avian Flu), both at the national and regional levels. Member States have also generated lessons and best practices relevant to their own contexts and situations.”
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In the United States, the culling of poultry resulted in 2023 in the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) paying more than half a billion dollars to producers, mostly to the big industrial farms, for the turkeys, chickens, and egg-laying hens killed after H5N1 was detected on their farms.
This imbalance in who gets compensated, e.g., the big producers, may make sense in the almond industry; if these large industrial producers have to take acreage out of production, it would be painful for them and better for the people of California.
“Culling” the Acreage of Large Almond Producers
By turning the U.S. Government’s Avian Flu payments approach on its head and paying the big California almond producers for acreage reductions, the government could “cull” acreage now committed to almond production, provide funds to compensate for the producers’ losses, and support using the “culled” acreage for a less water-intensive crop.
This would free up the public good water for the basic needs of Californians, rather than private goods for agricultural profits. Further, no new acreage for almonds would be allowed.
It Can’t Go on Like This
Climate change projections mean droughts, more forest fires, and heightened urban demand across the State. This is not hypothetical; the effects are happening now, not “down the road,” and need to be addressed soon.
California has shown it can lead with public policy in its emissions laws, including regulations for zero-emission vehicles and greenhouse gas emissions. Better utilization of scarce water resources for the good of all, even if high-consuming agricultural production is limited, is something that needs to be done soon.
Editor’s Note: The opinions expressed here by the authors are their own, not those of Impakter.com — In the Cover Photo: Almond trees in California, February 2018. Cover Photo Credit: Wikimedia Commons.
